ANALYSIS – Fasten your seat belts: Why El Niño will lead to more in-flight turbulence, and how to protect your travellers
Meteorologists forecast that the El Niño weather event currently developing over the Pacific Ocean will be the strongest since the 19th century. Combined with climate change caused by global warming, the expected outcome is extreme rainfall in some parts of the world, drought in others and, according to the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office, 2027 “very likely” will be the hottest on record.
All these developments could cause disruption for business travellers, but there is another consequence of El Niño that may hit them quite literally: stand by for a significant spike in episodes of clear-air turbulence. The peak months are tipped to be November 2026-January 2027, but disruption is likely to continue into the early part of spring in the northern hemsiphere.
El Niño warms the eastern Pacific, which releases more heat and moisture into the atmosphere. The phenomenon also changes the position and strength of jet streams. In standard recurrences of El Niño, water temperature rises by 1-2 degrees centigrade. But forecasters believe the increase this time will be as much as 3 degrees, leading to more violent vertical wind shears that will make turbulence even stronger and more sudden.
Regions most likely to be hit by increased turbulence include the North Atlantic (where the rise in incidents could be as high as 30 per cent), plus the USA, South America, Southeast Asia, Australia and Africa.
Turbulence have been on the rise in any case because of global warming. Severe episodes above the North Atlantic have increased 55 per cent since the 1970s.
In-flight turbulence is very unpleasant for travellers. It can make flights uncomfortable and frightening, and in some cases lead to injury. Flights can also take longer, with aircraft flying slower, or diverting where turbulence has been anticipated. Additional fuel burn caused by turbulence adds an estimated 1-2 per cent to airlines’ fuel costs.
Here are some of the issues travel managers should consider if they wish to start contingency planning for disruption caused by El Niño.
Check your insurance policies
Do they cover flight cancellations or trip disruption? What are the provisions for force majeure, and is El Niño-related disruption a named exclusion from the policy? Check your company’s insurance for meetings and events, as well as regular business trips, and for mislaid or damaged luggage, which is also more likely.
Anticipate disruption
Make sure each leg of the same trip is booked on one ticket so that airlines have a responsibility to provide an onward flight if a connection is missed. Instruct your travel management company to allow longer transfer time than normal for connecting flights. Try to book flights, hotels and any other travel-related reservations with as flexible conditions as possible, including free cancellation.
Education
Communicate awareness to travellers, both about your disruption arrangements and flight safety, especially the need to wear seat belts at all times. Urge travellers and meeting planners to consider when and where they book travel. Can an event be held at a time of year when the weather is likely to be better, for example, or at a location less exposed to stormy conditions?
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